Welcome back to the blog! I’m still taking entries to the contest to win a free magazine subscription from California Fighter Magazine (see details below). Today is a really special day, because Randy Couture is fighting. I have a little extra pep in my step when Randy fights, especially today. Randy doesn’t have that many fights left so each one is a fading chance to watch a legend. The card for UFC 102 is actually very solid. I am interested in all of the fights on the main card. I also have 3 official plays and will comment on a few others. Let’s get this party started.
Official weigh in results courtesy of MMAJunkie.com
MAIN CARD
- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (231) vs. Randy Couture (220)
- Thiago Silva (205) vs. Keith Jardine (205)
- Demian Maia (185) vs. Nate Marquardt (185)
- Krzysztof Soszynski (205) vs. Brandon Vera (205)
- Jake Rosholt (185) vs. Chris Leben (185)
PRELIMINARY CARD
- Aaron Simpson (185) vs. Ed Herman (185.5)
- Chris Tuchscherer (258) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (259)
- Mike Russow (260) vs. Justin McCully (238)
- Todd Duffee (251) vs. Tim Hague (263.5)
- Mark Munoz (185.5) vs. Nick Catone (185.5)
- Evan Dunham (155) vs. Marcus Aurelio (156)
Betting lines courtest of Betonfighting.com
MAIN CARD
- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +160 vs. Randy Couture -200
- Thiago Silva +130 vs. Keith Jardine -160
- Demian Maia +140 vs. Nate Marquardt -170
- Krzysztof Soszynski +180 vs. Brandon Vera -210
- Jake Rosholt +120 vs. Chris Leben -150
PRELIMINARY CARD
- Aaron Simpson -120 vs. Ed Herman -110
- Chris Tuchscherer +305 vs. Gabriel Gonzaga -375
- Mike Russow -275 vs. Justin McCully +215
- Todd Duffee -205 vs. Tim Hague +165
- Mark Munoz -215 vs. Nick Catone +175
- Evan Dunham +135 vs. Marcus Aurelio -155
My thoughts on the Undercard…
Evan Dunham +135 vs. Marcus Aurelio -155
This fight has a chance to be the fight of the night. I had a chance to see Dunham fight at the PFC back in January. The kid has some game and fights with Xtreme Couture. Aurelio trains with American Top Team and has quite a bit of experience. It will be interesting to see how Dunham does in his 2nd UFC fight against the lightweight gatekeeper in Aurelio.
No official pick.
Mark Munoz -215 vs. Nick Catone +175
After coming over for the WEC Munoz got knocked out by the tough Matt Hamill. I’m not convinced he’s UFC ready. I know that he is a great wrestler and trains with Urijah, but I don’t think he’s beat anyone good yet. The same thing with Catone, he’s tough, but he lost in his only fight against legitimate competition in Tim Credeur back in April. This should be a pretty good fight as well.
No official pick.
Mike Russow -275 vs. Justin McCully +215
I don’t know much about Mike Russow other than he used to fight in the Adrenaline organization out in the
No official pick.
Chris Tuchscherer +305 vs. Gabriel Gonzaga -375
I’m tempted to make a play on this because Gonzaga usually takes out the opponents that he’s supposed to and if the line is any indication then he shouldn’t have much trouble with Tuchscherer. But, I don’t know anything about Tuchscherer other than he is 17-1 and making his UFC debut. I don’t really like to make a prediction without having seen a guy fight before. I’m glad that this fight isn’t on the main card though because I don’t feel like looking at Gonzaga’s hairy back tonight.
No official pick.
Main Card breakdowns and my 3 official picks…
Jake Rosholt +120 vs. Chris Leben -150
I think Rosholt can win this fight. However, there are too many unknown variables in order for me to make an official play. Rosholt is a tremendous wrestler, but he lost to Dan Miller in his last fight in about a minute. Now Miller is a good wrestler, but losing in a minute should not happen to anyone with Rosholt’s wrestling capabilities. I also don’t think his wrestling ablities will be as effective as he’s used to against a very experienced guy like Leben. Leben is a gatekeeper in the UFC’s middleweight division, but he’s out to prove he’s more than that. Leben hasn’t fought in almost a year because of a suspension for a failed drug test. This is an additional variable that is making this fight hard to read. Rosholt trains at Xtreme Couture and should be able to continually develop because of it, while Leben may be topping off. Leben’s been around for awhile and trains at his own gym and certainly not with the caliber of coaches and fellow fighters at Xtreme Couture. I’m not making an official pick here, but I think Rosholt wins in what should be a pretty good fight.
No official pick.
Krzysztof Soszynski +180 vs. Brandon Vera -210
I will make an official pick on this fight. Soszynski comes in on a 6 fight winning streak, but I’m not convinced he's the real deal. Three of the fights came outside of the UFC and what doesn’t show up on his “official” record is his stint on The Ultimate Fighter TV show because those fights count as amateur fights. So the 6 fight winning streak is more of a hype thing than anything else. He comes from a decent camp in Team Quest but he’s going up against a legitimate opponent tonight in Brandon Vera. Soszynski’s go to move is the kimura which is an arm lock. He won’t be able to pull that off tonight against Vera who’s jiu-jitsu is at a much better level than the guys Soszynski has fought lately, maybe even ever. Now on to my boy Vera. I wasn’t really that big of a Brandon Vera fan until I had a chance to meet him (see picture above). He was extremely cool and down to earth and I’ve got nothing but love for the guy now. After knocking out Frank Mir, Vera was considered the next in line for the heavyweight championship. But 2 bad losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Verdum put those pipe dreams to rest. The losses provided a reality check for Vera and he’s since dropped to light heavyweight (LHW) and gone 2-1 since with the loss coming to Keith Jardine. I’m still intrigued by Vera’s move to the LHW division. The two wins he has aren’t against that impressive of opponents. A win tonight against Soszynski will set up a future matchup with other LHW contenders. A loss may relegate Vera to gatekeeper status. This fight should be determined early and I’m not talking about an outcome. When Vera comes out aggressive, he usually wins and when he comes out timid, he usually loses. In his last fight Vera was aggressive and won, he needs to continue that momentum tonight. Soszynski does have some power but Vera should be able to avoid it and win this by a decision. I think this line is set correctly and am officially taking Vera.
My official pick: Vera -210, 2.1 units to win 1 unit
Demian Maia +140 vs. Nate Marquardt -170
I’m really excited for this fight. These guys are 2 of my favorite fighters. Maia is one of the best jiu-jitsu guys in the world and probably the best in all of MMA. He is undefeated and finished all but one of his opponents. This includes a 5-0 record in the UFC (all 5 by submission, not to mention 4 submission of the night awards). Most of the people betting on this fight will be picking Maia to win and those people are loving getting him as an underdog. Well if there’s one thing I know when it comes to handicapping, is that if something looks too good to be true, it is and take the other side. What most people don’t know is how good Nate Marquardt is. He may be the 2nd best middleweight in the world just behind Anderson Silva. Marquardt is a beast. He has great stand up, wrestling, and is a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Now I know his jits isn’t as good as Maia’s, but it’s certainly better than anyone Maia has faced. The only way Maia can win this fight is if he can pull off a submission. Marquardt should be able to avoid that as he will come in with a great gameplan courtesy of his world class coach, Greg Jackson. Maia is capable of beating anyone in this division except Marquardt, Anderson Silva, and maybe Dan Henderson. He may go on to do that one day, but I think he needs to work on some of his other skills because jiu-jitsu alone won’t do it. However, if there were someone able to do it on primarily on jiu-jitsu, it would be Maia. Maia will be the champ one day, but now is not his time. With all that said, I’m going to officially take Nate “the great” in this one and look for him to win via KO.
My official pick: Marquardt -170, 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Thiago Silva +130 vs. Keith Jardine -160
I don’t have a play on this fight, but it should be a good one. Both of these guys like to stand and bang. Silva has a black belt in jiu-jitsu but is more known as a stand up fighter. Jardine has fought some of the best in the LHW division but can’t seem to put together the string of wins he needs in order to get a title shot. No doubt he’s good, but he’s still just outside of the top guys in this division. But because of his inconsistency he is a gatekeeper for this division. Now Silva was on a 13-0 tear before being dismantled by current champ Lyoto Machida. Silva has a lot to prove in this fight. Will he bounce back? And so does Jardine, can Jardine return victorious from his disappointing loss to Rampage? I don’t know for sure, but we’ll certainly find out tonight. This has fight of the night written all over it. I’m definitely looking forward to this one.
No official pick.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +160 vs. Randy Couture -200
I spent some time earlier this week talking about this fight and I still feel the same way. If Randy can avoid the submission, he wins this fight. He should be able to win by a decision. Here’s what I wrote earlier this week about this fight…
This fight has been years in the making and a fight that a lot of fans have wanted to see for awhile. Both fighters have been considered 2 of the best in the heavyweight division but never fought, mainly because Nog fought in
Probably the most popular fighter in all of MMA, Randy couture is definitely one of my favorites, if not my all time favorite. There’s a special feeling in the air on Saturday’s leading up to a Randy fight. I like Nog, I think he’s a great fighter and a great person, but I get flipping jacked for Randy fights. I’ll hold out hope that the ol’ man has still got another win left in him and can take down Nog. If he doesn’t I’m afraid Randy might consider hanging it up again. I’ll get into that when and if that happens. Looking ahead at Saturday’s matchup Randy is a slight favorite at -170. I don’t know if I would set the line that way so that tells me that Randy is a more obvious play as the favorite as a lot of bettors will be looking to get Nog plus money. The oddsmakers will sit back and cash in once all the money comes in on Nog and Randy wins. Other than the oddsmakers giving Randy the nod, I think that Randy’s gameplan will be too much for Nog. Randy will come out and look to use his Greco wrestling style to pin Nog up against the cage and tire him out. I think Randy has better stand up and better ground control. If Randy can avoid the submission, he’ll beat Nog in a decision. I expect Nog to win 1 round but Randy walks away with a 29-28 split decision win. I also predict that I will say “That guy is my hero!” about 27 times today.
My official pick: Couture -200, 2 units to win 1 unit
My current record after the Strikeforce: Carano vs Cyborg fight is 7-2 +5 units. And to recap, here are my official plays for tonight…
- My official pick: Vera -210, 2.1 units to win 1 unit
- My official pick: Marquardt -170, 1.7 units to win 1 unit
- My official pick: Couture -200, 2 units to win 1 unit
Also there is still time to get in tonight’s contest. Here are the details…
Pick the winner, the round and how the fight is going to be won. We get points for getting each one right and a bonus 2 points for getting all three right. For instance…
If you pick Randy Couture to win by 1st round KO and he wins by 3rd round submission, then you would only get 1 point for picking the right winner.
If you picked Nog to win by 3rd round submission, you would get 2 points; 1 for the right round, and 1 for how the fight was won. It does not matter that you did not pick the right fighter.
And if you picked Randy Couture to win by 3rd round submission, then you would get 5 points; 1 for getting the right fighter, 1 for getting the right round, 1 for getting how the fight was won, and 2 bonus points for getting all 3 right.
Simple enough?
UFC 102 Fantasy Fighter brought to you by California Fighter Magazine.
We only make predictions from the main card. So here are the fights we will be picking from for Saturday night…
- Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
- Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
- Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
- Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt
- Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brandon Vera
RULES
- For picks to count, you must pick the fighter, round, and how the fight will be won. No incomplete picks will be counted.
- If you just say Randy Couture 1st round, you will not be awarded any points. Let’s follow directions people it’s not that hard.
- Also, all picks must be emailed to fantastyfootballmma@gmail.com. Any picks made via the comment box will not be counted.
- All picks must be sent by 6:59pm pacific time according to the timestamp on the email.
PRIZE
The winner of the contest will win a free year subscription to California Fighter Magazine. I’d like to thank the guys for donating the prize. If you don’t win you should still subscribe to the mag, they are doing some big things for the California MMA scene so check em out. Check the blog on Sunday to see the results and to see if you win.
Get in the contest and enjoy the fights! See you guys tomorrow!
-jg-
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