Here's how your fantasy draft will go down

Welcome back everyone. I want to thank you all for the kind words you’ve shared about the blog. I’m glad you enjoy reading it as much as I like writing them. My first real draft is heading into the final rounds and I’ll get you guys an update on who I got in the 13^th and 14^th, but first I want to write about something that will definitely help you in the next few weeks. Yesterday was my first live draft of the year. I’m currently experiencing all of the emotions that go with this time of the year. I’m excited, I’m nervous, I’m anxious, apprehensive, and all kinds of emotions. Today at work I shared my interest in fantasy football with a co-worker. She said, “wow, so you’re pretty much obsessed”… That’s an understatement, lol. I shared with her my current spreadsheet which I will share with you and as she put it, I “have this thing down to a science.” Well fantasy football is about unpredictable as they come, but you can calculate pretty accurate breakdowns by analyzing Average Draft Position (ADP). I’ve already talked about the vibes and over the next few days I will show you what you’re upcoming draft will look like when you draft. Some things will change over the next few weeks, but if you are drafting this week, this breakdown will help you. This analysis will show you where you can expect each guy to go so you can plan accordingly if that’s your guy. Can you wait on DeSean Jackson and get him in the 6^th or do you pick him in the 5^th? You really like Peyton Manning, but don’t want a QB until the 4^th round, can you get him there? The analysis below will answer all these questions.

All of these results were taken from the real, not mock, drafts that have started in the last week on the site Antsports. These results are assuming that the league you are in is a 12 team league, with a TE and Flex required. If you want to check this awesome tool out for yourself, click here.

Welcome to your draft 2009

Note: Some of the numbers will not go 1,2,3 etc, but will bounce around because we are considering the average. Also, there will be some rounds with more than 12 players in the round, because, again, we are dealing with averages. This isn’t a perfect science, but this will show you on average where the players you are targeting are being drafted. For instance in “Round 1” below there are 13 players listed; whilein an actual draft only 12 players will be picked per round. Some of these guys are going in the 1^st or 2^nd, but mostly the 1^st, that’s why there are more than 12 players in some of these rounds. Also, a guy like Chris Johnson in Round 1 will show as the 10^th pick even though he is the 9^th guy listed. While he will be the 9^th guy listed, on average he is being picked at the end of round 1 around pick 10. So some of the guys listed behind him are being selected in front of him in some drafts so that’s why some of the numbers don’t come out perfectly. The best way to look at these numbers is to consider where you are drafting, the beginning (picks 1-4), the middle (picks 5-8), or the end (picks 9-12) of the round. The corresponding numbers will show you what players to expect based on their ADPs. Confused yet? It’s actually a lot simpler than all of the little tidbits I just listed. Simply put, find the guy you want, then look to see where he’s being drafted then plan on taking him. For example, Aaron Rodgers ADP is 4.6, so if you wanted Aaron Rodgers you’d better plan to take him before the 6^th pick of the 4^th round.

ROUND 1

1.1 Adrian Peterson – With Favre at QB, I finally agree that he is the #1 pick.

1.2 Maurice Jones-Drew – The question remains whether or not he can carry the load for a full season. If he does, he’ll go down as the best back this year.

1.3 Matt Forte – The guy had a great year last year and with Cutler and QB this year, a similar year can be expected.

1.4 Michael Turner – I think Turner should be in line for a repeat performance this year, but this is too high for a PPR league. Turner does not catch the ball. Also, his schedule is one of the toughest this year, so temper expectations.

1.6 Steven Jackson – I know the guy is a beast, but right now he’s all they have. Yes, he’ll touch the ball a lot but it’ll be hard for him to go nuts especially with the issues at QB.

1.7 LaDanian Tomlinson – I know the guy has issues, but as I stated a few days ago, he can still get it done.

1.7 Larry Fitzgerald – As long as he stays healthy, I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat.

1.10 Chris Johnson – I like CJ3 a lot, but I’m going to have a hard time picking a guy in the 1^st round that shares a backfield with a guy who gets all the TDs.

1.10 Andre Johnson – I love this guy, if he stays healthy I think he can out-do last year’s monster numbers.

1.11 DeAngelo Williams – Last week I was off this guy, well this week I’m all over him. I might even take him 4^th-6^th. Jonathan Stewart is having some injury issues so that leaves DeAngelo as the only game in town right now and last year he was a beast.

1.12 Randy Moss – Probably one of the safest picks in the 1^st round. I’ll definitely be targeting him in the 1^st round.

1.12 Frank Gore – This will be Gore’s biggest year yet if he can stay healthy. Lock him up.

1.12 Steve Slaton – Some people think Slaton’s rookie year was a fluke, this year he proves them wrong. I’d love to get him at the end of Round 1.

ROUND 2

2.2 Brian Westbrook – I’ve made it very clear that I love BWB. Make sure you also get “Shady” LeSean McCoy and sleep peacefully all season long with these studs in your lineup.

2.2 Calvin Johnson – Another guy I’m enamored with. Huge man crush on Megatron this year. If I can get him in the early 2^nd round I’m a happy camper.

2.3 Drew Brees – The guy is incredible, but I probably won’t have him on any of my teams this year, too early to take a QB for me.

2.5 Reggie Wayne – Not getting as much love as the other top 5 WRs this year, but if tonight’s game is any indication, Wayne and Manning are already in mid-season form. Don’t be scared of Reggie, Reggie is your friend.

2.7 Tom Brady – Everyone knows I love Tom Brady, too bad I won’t get to root for him on any of my teams this year. I just don’t like taking QBs early, not even if their name is Tom Brady.

2.8 Anquan Boldin – Here’s another guy I really like this year. I know he has injury concerns, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll justify going this high.

2.9 Marion Barber – He’s the lead back in Dallas, but that backfield is crowded, and who likes crowds? Marion won’t be crowing my roster unless he ridiculously falls to the late 3^rd round.

2.10 Greg Jennings – The more I think about picking him, the more I like him. Rodgers to Jennings should be good for at least 12 TD connections.

2.11 Roddy White – I like Roddy, but I don’t think I like him more than Steve Smith, Wes Welker, and maybe even Marques Colston this year so unless I can get Roddy in the mid-3^rd I probably won’t have him on my team this year.

2.12 Clinton Portis – The guy just seems to get it done. The last 2 years I didn’t feel good about taking him and he proved me wrong for the most part. This year if he proves me wrong again, it won’t be a part of any of my teams.

2.12 Wes Welker – He’s not the sexiest pick around, but he’s almost a lock for 100+ catches and that is very sexy.

2.12 Steve Smith – It seems like every year this guy has some injury issue headed into the season and this year is no different. I’m concerned about the injury but when push comes to shove, you want studs on your team. It doesn’t get any studlier than Superman himself.

2.12 Peyton Manning – He never gets hurt and he’s always consistent, but the 2^nd round is still too rich for my QB blood.

ROUND 3

3.2 Reggie Bush – Surprised to see him here? I’m not, I’m all over this guy in the 3^rd round this year.

3.2 Marques Colston – He has his issues but he’s in the right situation to be a stud this year. Take him with confidence.

3.4 Brandon Jacobs – I like him, but his injury issues have burned me in the past, I don’t think I’ll give them an opportunity to this year.

3.5 Ronnie Brown – If I knew that he would be the focus of the offense I would be on the Ronnie Bandwagon, but I don’t think he is and Ricky can still run. Not my favorite guy in the 3^rd round.

3.8 Terrell Owens – Some seem to think this is the year he falls off, why? His QB is good and this offense is decent overall. As long as the line can give Edwards time, I don’t see why Owens disappoints.

3.9 Dwayne Bowe – A few weeks ago, I loved this guy. Lately, I don’t know what his deal is. I think he should still have a good year, but I am concerned.

3.10 Brandon Marshall – He has quite possibly the worst vibes in all of fantasy football right now, not touching this guy with a 10 foot pole, I’ll let someone else worry about this headache for the rest of the year.

3.11 Jason Witten – The 3^rd round is too early for a TE for me, but the 4^th isn’t. I’m taking Witten in the 4^th if he falls to me.

3.11 Pierre Thomas – Picking him in the 3^rd round will go down as the pick of the draft or the punk of the draft. I’m leaning pick.

3.12 Kevin Smith – I’m slowly, but surely turning on to Smith. I mean the guy did have an ok year as a rookie on one of the worst teams, so things can only get better, right?

3.12 TJ Houshmandzadeh – Initially I thought this was too early, but after seeing that he had 92 catches in a terrible situation last year, I’m loving him in Seattle.

ROUND 4

4.4 Ryan Grant – I’m back and forth on Grant. I don’t think I would like him in the 3^rd, but I’d be ok with him in the 4^th.

4.5 Chad Ochocinco – The more I watch Hard Knocks the more I like him. But seriously, I like 85 to have a bounce back season and he will be a guy I target this weekend in the 4^th.

4.6 Aaron Rodgers – Usually I don’t like taking a QB until around the 5^th, but this year with Rodgers, Rivers, and Warner all going in the 4^th, I’ll be targeting them after I get some RBs and WRs. Rodgers faces an easy schedule this year and has one of the best receiving corps 1 through 4, maybe even the best in the league.

4.6 Kurt Warner – I’d like to get him in the 5^th or the end of the 4^th at the least. I don’t think he will last that long, so he probably won’t be a guy I have on my teams this year.

4.7 Roy Williams – I like Roy Williams and I’ve been hearing good things about his rapport with Romo but the 4^th is too early for him.

4.8 Phillip Rivers – Love him this year. If everything clicks like I think it will for the Chargers, Rivers could go down as this year’s AFC MVP.

4.8 Antonio Gates – He’s always been a player I like, but I don’t like him enough to grab him in the 4^th. However, there are some guys at the end of the 4^th that I like even less, so if I’m picking at the end of the 4^th and he’s still there, I might pull the trigger.

4.11 Braylon Edwards – Not touching him with a 10 foot pole. I’m not going to pick any Browns for that matter. Too many bad vibes and Edwards is having an inconsistent camp. I need to see more than that after his down year and having been burned by Edwards prior to the ’07 season.

4.12 Marshawn Lynch – He’s going to miss the 1^st three weeks of the year with a suspension. I’m not picking a guy in the 4^th, 5^th, or 6^th who isn’t going to be available until week 4, that’s insane. Would you pick an injured player in the 4^th round that was going to miss at least 3 weeks to start the season? No, you wouldn’t. Sorry Marshawn, maybe you can be on my teams next year.

4.12 Tony Gonzalez – He’s the ageless wonder. He was the best TE last year and should be able to have a good year but I don’t like him in the 4^th round. Maybe the 6^th round, but I’m not using a top 4 pick on him.

ROUND 5

5.1 Anthony Gonzalez – I like him. Decent player, good offense and should be pretty consistent.

5.1 Darren McFadden – I didn’t like him most of the summer but he’s shown that he’s probably not going to be a great back, but I think he will be a good back. He can catch the ball and that’s really important. The Raiders will certainly need him so he’ll get his touches. I like him more than some of the other backs that are going in the 5^th round, namely Larry Johnson, Knowshawn Moreno, and Joseph Addai.

5.2 Knowshawn Moreno – I loved him and thought he’d be the top rookie RB this year, but he came into camp late, is hurt right now, and probably won’t open up the season as the starter. The Bronco backfield burnt me badly last year and I’m not going to let it happen again. Not touching Knowshawn this year. He could still have a good year and be the best rookie back, but he won’t do it on any of my teams… unless he falls to like the 6^th round.

5.2 Vincent Jackson – I always like VJack, but this year I’m not picking him. There’s too many options in SD and I don’t think he commands as many touches as a guy like Gates. I think he’ll have some big games, but also have a few lame-o’s. I need more than that from a guy who I’m looking to be my #2 WR.

5.4 Tony Romo – If I miss on Rivers or Rodgers, I will take Romo. I think he’ll be fine without TO because he still has his guy Witten. Also his Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett runs a pretty efficient offense and the Cowboys have enough weapons to throw to so I’m not expecting much of a drop off at all. Oh yeah and no Jessica? No problem.

5.5 Santonio Holmes – I think this is a little early, but Holmes is a good player and faces an easy schedule. Plus Nate Washington left for Tennessee so Holmes should be the Steelers deep threat again. He’s not my favorite #2 WR option, but I do like him.

5.6 Joseph Addai – I actually picked this guy last night in my draft, but I got him at the end of the 6^th round as my 3^rd RB. I don’t love the pick because the team drafted Donald Brown in the 1^st for a reason. Their new coach has already said that he plans on using both, adding the Colts to the laundry list of teams now using the running back by committee (RBBC) approach. He could surprise, he could be replaced by Brown. If you take Addai, make sure you get Brown. This situation could be a headache this year but then again this is still the Colts and they’ll move the ball and need the backs to do well to set up Peyton’s bread and butter, the play action.

5.6 DeSean Jackson – Love this guy this year. He’s clicking with McNabb and will be his favorite target. Jackson has a lot of the qualities you want in a fantasy WR, good hands, good speed, good route running, a deep threat, and he’s not afraid to go over the middle. I just missed on him last night, definitely one of my favorite targets in the 5^th round.

5.7 Dallas Clark – He’s a nice player, but this is a little early for me. With TEs this year, I’m either going after Witten or Gates or waiting. I’d rather have guys like AGonz, DeSean, and Eddie Royal in the 5^th.

5.8 Donovan McNabb – McNabb has a lot of options and should have a good year. I think the 5^th round is about right for him. I’m not really worried about him getting hurt like I have in years past. I love the addition of Maclin and think Maclin/Jackson will be one of the best 1-2 combos for years to come.

5.8 Antonio Bryant – He’s hurt and missing all of the preseason, has some issues at QB, and I think he becomes the #2 option in the passing game with the addition of Winslow. I don’t like him, and I’m not picking him this year.

5.8 Eddie Royal – This guy should be a PPR machine. He’s the only thing in the Bronco offense that I like. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Royal will be the highest scoring Bronco this year.

5.9 Derrick Ward – I like Ward this year. I’ve always liked Ward. The Bucs want to run the ball like the Giants do. Ward is actually the biggest back on this team, so I’m not worried about Graham or Cadillac Williams stealing any goal line carries from him. Ward is a bit of injury risk, but I think he’s a very nice option in the 5^th.

5.9 Larry Johnson – LJ is a guy I will never pick.

Thanks for checking out the blog. I'll update all of my drafts later this week. Good luck in your drafts and as always, YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!

-jg-