Fedor is not the #1 Heavyweight in the world, Brock is! Brock N Roll baby!

You’ll see a lot of rankings on the internet and in the overall scheme of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) they matter very little, they are people’s opinion. But they make for some great conversation. When I make my fight predictions, I look at a few factors, but the 2 that hold the most weight are opponents faced and who they train with. It’s not an exact science, but it’s worked out pretty well for me. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut, but I will rarely make an official prediction on a fight based solely on my gut opinion. This weekend, two of the world’s top heavyweight fighters will face off; Randy “The Natural” Couture and “Minotauro” Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. That got me thinking, I have a rough idea of who I would say is in the top 10 of each division, but I never really thought about exactly where. So over the next few weeks I’m going to set out to breakdown the top divisions in MMA starting with the heavyweights. Now I know you will not agree with all of my rankings and that’s fine, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. However, I will present convincing arguments as to why my rankings are the way they are. Normally, I will rank the top 10, but on occasion there will be 2 fighters where I can’t make a definite decision at the current time and will give them an “A” and “B” ranking. Additionally, I’ll continually update the rankings as more information becomes available based on questions answered by the fights that dictate them. Let’s take a look at how the big boys stack up.

Better luck next time…

The following fighters can be seen in top 10 rankings on various sites around the internet, but I’m not buying the hype. Don’t get me wrong I think they’re good, just not good enough to be deemed in the top 10; Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski.

Allistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem

Overeem is the current Strikeforce champion, but when was the last time he defended it? (Answer: November 2007). Yes Overeem has some big wins but he also has some bad losses, like to Sergei Kharitonov…who?... Exactly.

Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski

Once considered one of the best in the heavyweight division, Arlovski’s last 2 losses have me wondering if he can hang with the world’s best anymore. I still think he’s a great fighter, but based on his last fights I don’t think he’s worthy of a top ten ranking. Earlier this year a 15-5 record was very impressive, after 2 losses, a 15-7 record is not. Also, looking at some of Arlovski’s past wins, there’s no one in there I would consider a top opponent, not to mention 2 losses to the has been of the division, Tim Sylvia. Arlovski is and will always be a fan favorite, but his top 10 fighter days in the heavyweight division are long gone.

Now that we know who doesn’t belong in the Top 10, let’s take a look at who does. To clarify, the heavyweight division is any fighter who competes at 206 pounds and up.

10b. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic 25-6-2

Cro Cop is a guy that I'm not ready to make a definite call on. He was considered one of the greats a few years ago. That all came to an end when he suffered a devastating leg kick knock out to Gabriel Gonzaga in 2007 and a decision loss to Cheick Kongo following. Since Cro Cop has won 3 in a row with a no contest. I'd like to see Cro Cop's next fight vs Junior Dos Santos before dropping him out of the top 10. If he beats Dos Santos, he stays, if he loses, then he's gone. Cro Cop needs to beat Dos Santos and keep stepping up the level of his opponents. Next month he'll turn 35 and with over 30 fights under his belt, his motor may be running out. The fight with Dos Santos at UFC 103 next month will answer a lot of questions about the type of fighter he still is.

Next fight: UFC 103 on Sept 19th vs Unranked Junior Dos Santos

10a. Brett "The Grim" Rogers 10-0

Here's another fighter that has some questions surrounding him about whether or not he deserves to be this high. Yes he is undefeated but his only real notable opponent is Andrei Arlovski. Rogers KO'd Arlovski in less than 30 seconds in their fight this last June. Despite a lack of notable opponents, there are two things that intrigue me enough to rank Rogers this high. One, he has finished all of his opponents with 9 of them by KO. The other intriguing quality about Rogers is that he is not ducking anyone. He wants to fight the best. No, he's not in the UFC so he won't fight the best, but he is in Strikeforce and there are enough opponents for him to fight for now. If Rogers continues to win and remains undefeated in Strikeforce, fighting the likes of Fabricio Verdum and Allistair Overreem, then he deserves to be here. But Rogers may fight an even tougher opponent in Fedor Emelianko. No I don't think he can beat Fedor, but he can certainly beat the other 2 and he could be competitive in the UFC's heavyweight division as well based on what I've seen from him so far. One point of note, Rogers knocked Arlovski out faster than Fedor, not bad for a guy like Rogers who has only been training MMA for a few years. Additionally, Fedor has requested to fight Rogers, so that should speak some kind of volume to the type of fighter Rogers is. At this point, I'm ok with putting him in the top 10, but he'll need to continue to win and fight as good of competition that he can get in order for me to justify him again as a top tenner in the future. A trip to the UFC would also help his cause.

Next fight: Not determined, but there are rumors that Fedor Emelianko may take on Rogers for Fedor's first fight in the Strikeforce organization.

9. Cheick Kongo 14-5-1

Cheick Kongo is one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division. However, he is not a good wrestler when compared to the fighter's atop of this division. In his last fight against Cain Velasquez, Kongo outstruck him in the stand up game. The bad news was that Kongo could not stop Cain's takedowns and Velasquez was able to take Cheick down at will where he spent most of the fight scoring points in dominant ground and pound tactics against Cheick. Kongo has an impressive 7-3 record in the UFC, including 5 KOs. Additionally, in one of those losses, he lost a very controversial decision to Heath Herring that I saw Kongo winning. So in my opinion his record could easily be 8-2 in the UFC and with one of those losses coming at the hands of Velasquez, Kongo's performance in the UFC is nothing to balk at. Cain proved that Kongo's ground game needs some serious work so if Kongo expects to move up in this division, he'd better get ready to do it from the ground or at least develop enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing where in most fights, he'd hold an advantage if not in the least be very competitive. I like Kongo, he's one of my favorite fighters to watch, especially when he's walking out, but at this point I'm concerned that he may be just a very good gatekeeper* when it comes to the heavyweight division.

*A gatekeeper in MMA is usually used when talking about the UFC. A gatekeeper fighter is considered someone who is good, but not good enough to be the champion, but not bad enough to not be in the organization. Gatekeepers will often fight emerging talent or newcomers to the UFC to determine if they are worthy of being considered a legitimate contender. If they beat the gatekeeper then they’re ready for the higher level of competition, if they don’t then they’re probably getting dropped from the organization.

Next fight: Kongo is rumored to be fighting #5 Mir at UFC 107 in Memphis, Tennessee.

8. Shane Carwin 11-0

Most people would expect to see him higher. Yes I know he is undefeated and that he’s finished everyone he’s faced, but of his 11 opponents, I’ve only heard of Gabriel Gonzaga. Check it out, here’s a list of who he’s fought, I’m pretty sure that you haven’t heard of any of these other guys either. Rumor has it that Carwin will be getting a title shot in November at UFC 106 against Champion Brock Lesnar. Interestingly enough, I don’t mind that matchup. Usually, I get very frustrated when the UFC matches up a guy who obviously doesn’t deserve a title shot (like Thales Leitas). However, I think this matchup makes a lot of sense. First of all, Brock as already beat two of the top contenders in Frank Mir and Randy Couture. The other contender is Antonio Noguiera, but it’s hard to justify him getting a title shot coming off a loss to Mir who Lesnar just beat. Second of all, Carwin is rapidly gaining fans as fighters who can finish quickly usually do. Finally, Carwin is big and comes from a wrestling background just like Brock and that adds to this fight's intrigue. I know that a lot of fans love Carwin and hate Brock and would love to see Carwin win, but I don’t see that happening. The line on this fight already has Brock at almost a 3 to 1 favorite. I’d say that’s pretty accurate. He should be able to out wrestle and over power Carwin just like everyone else. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carwin fight the gatekeeper Kongo after his loss to Lesnar to prove that he still belongs with the top of the division. If you disagree with this ranking, then I’d certainly like to hear about it, but before you email, please tell me who in the top 7 he can beat. (email me at fantasyfootballmma@gmail.com)

Next fight: Carwin is rumored to fight Champ Brock Lesnar on Nov 21, 2009 in Las Vegas at UFC 106

7. Josh “The Babyfaced Assassin” Barnett 24-5

Barnett recently got busted for testing positive for a banned substance. The failed drug test resulted in a failed fight with Fedor and the eventual folding entirely of the Affliction promotion. If you look at Barnett’s record, you’ll see that he’s lost to Cro Cop 3 times. All of those came during Cro Cop’s heyday. Another one of Barnett's losses came to Pedro Rizzo 8 years ago which he avenged last July and the last time he lost came to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in 2006, but Barnett had previously beat him earlier that year. So Barnett doesn’t have a bad record at all. It’s actually pretty damn impressive if you take a look at some of the wins. In addition to Rizzo and Nogueira, he’s also beat Gilbert Yvel, Jeff Monson, Aleksander Emelianko, Randy Couture, and Dan Severn. It will be interesting to see what organization signs Barnett next. Normally, I’d say Strikeforce, but the UFC has been taking back a lot of its former fighters and Barnett could certainly be brought back. I don’t really want to see him go to Strikeforce. They only have about 3 fighters I’d like to see him fight (Rogers, Fedor, Overreem). I’d much prefer to see him go to the UFC where he could make a run at Brock while taking on some of the best heavyweights in the world to get there.

Next fight: It's reported that Barnett has agreed to wrestle in Japan's Inoki Genome Federation, a professional wrestling organization. Barnett will be dropped from the rankings if he does not line up a real MMA fight by the end of the year. WTF?!

6. Antonio “Minotauro” Rodrigo Nogueira 31-5-1

Nogueira has fought everyone and beat most everyone, except a few fellow elite fighters (Frank Mir and Fedor). One man he has not faced is his opponent this Saturday, Randy “The Natural” Couture. I’m not going to spend a lot of time talking about why Nog is here, but based on the who’s who he’s fought you can see why. Instead I’d like to do a slight sneak preview about his fight with Randy. This fight has been years in the making and a fight that a lot of fans have wanted to see for awhile. Both fighters have been considered 2 of the best in the heavyweight division but never fought, mainly because Nog fought in Japan and Randy in the US. Well they finally face off and Nog comes in as a slight underdog +140. This is interesting because normally Randy is the underdog in most of his fights. The last time Randy was a favorite had to have been in 2005 when he fought Mike Van Arsdale. This is a really tough fight for me to call. I think if Nog is going to win, he’s going to have to weather Randy’s Greco wrestling and ground control and catch Randy in a submission. That’s the only way I see him winning. I don’t see him out-striking or out-grappling Randy. This will be Randy’s first 3 round fight since 2005 so I’ll look for Randy to outpoint Nog for a split decision win.

Next fight: Nog takes on #3 Couture this Saturday in Oregon at UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueria

5. Frank Mir 12-4

After becoming the first fighter to ever stop Nog in a fight, Frank Mir lost a one-sided rematch to current champ Brock Lesnar. I’m really interested to see how Mir does over the next year. It was proven that he’s not the best in this division, but I think he could give some of the fighters I have ranked ahead of him a run for their money. Mir was out of fighting for almost 2 years as he recovered from a motorcycle accident. Once he returned to the octagon, he lost 2 out of 3 and the suggestions of him being done began. Mir bounced back with 3 wins in a row including a submission of Brock and the TKO of Nog. This will be the first time Mir will have fought coming off a loss since 2006. How does he respond? I’m not sure, but the rumor is that he is facing Cheick Kongo. While I think Mir will be the favorite going into that fight, I don’t think it will be an easy task for him to come out victorious, but he will.

Next fight: Mir is rumored to be fighting #9 Kongo on Dec 12, 2009 at UFC 107 in Memphis, Tennessee.

4. Cain Velasquez 6-0

This may be the most controversial fighter on here. Not because he’s on here, but because I have him this high. It’s no surprise that Fedor isn’t going to fight Brock anytime soon and Brock already beat Randy so if there is someone left with the ability to be beat Brock, it’s Cain. I understand Cain only has 6 fights, but Cain’s wrestling ability may be the best in all of MMA. Cain fights with the American Kickboxing Academy which feature some of the best fighters in MMA like Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, and Mike Swick and it’s been said that Cain is the most talented person at that gym. That tells me a lot. Cain has only been fighting MMA for about 3 years. Cain would have more fights, but he could not find an opponent because no one wanted to fight him. Finally, after a private workout in front of UFC president Dana White, Cain was signed to a UFC contract. Since entering the organization, Cain has reeled off 4 straight wins and all in impressive fashion. He proved that he can beat Kongo and I also think he can beat everyone else in this division. This is a bold prediction but until someone beats Cain, I’m not moving him down. Cain fights again in October against Ben Rothwell. Cain should be able to walk through Rothwell. After Rothwell I expect Cain to get a matchup with Mir, Nog, Couture, or Carwin with a title fight with Brock to follow.

Next fight: Oct 24, 2009 in Los Angeles against Unranked Ben Rothwell at UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun

3. Randy “The Natural” Couture 16-9

Probably the most popular fighter in all of MMA, Randy couture is definitely one of my favorites, if not my all time favorite. There’s a special feeling in the air on Saturday’s leading up to a Randy fight. I like Nog, I think he’s a great fighter and a great person, but I get flipping jacked for Randy fights. I’ll hold out hope that the ol’ man has still got another win left in him and can take down Nog. If he doesn’t I’m afraid Randy might consider hanging it up again. I’ll get into that when and if that happens. Looking ahead at Saturday’s matchup Randy is a slight favorite at -170. I don’t know if I would set the line that way so that tells me that Randy is a more obvious play as the favorite as a lot of bettors will be looking to get Nog plus money. The oddsmakers will sit back and cash in once all the money comes in on Nog and Randy wins. Other than the oddsmakers giving Randy the nod, I think that Randy’s gameplan will be too much for Nog. Randy will come out and look to use his Greco wrestling style to pin Nog up against the cage and tire him out. I think Randy has better stand up and better ground control. If Randy can avoid the submission, he’ll beat Nog in a decision. I expect Nog to win 1 round but Randy walks away with a 29-28 split decision win.

Next fight: Saturday vs #6 Nogueira

2. Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko 30-1

Look, I know that everyone and there mother has Fedor #1, well guess what? I don’t! I did but after his latest stunt of ducking the UFC, I just can’t do it anymore. I know that essentially Fedor has never lost and he’s beat some of the best in the world, but let me start with some people he hasn’t beat; Randy Couture, Brock Lesnar, Frank Mir… all who happen to be, you guessed it, in the UFC! Can Fedor beat them? Without a doubt. Will he? We’ll never know until his management stops being so greedy and lets Fedor fight in the UFC. I’m of the opinion that if you don’t fight the best, you aren’t considered the best. Fedor hasn’t fought anyone considered a top contender probably since Matt Lindland in 2007 or worse Cro Cop in 2005. So Mr. Fedor you enjoy sitting at #2 in my rankings until you step up to the big leagues.

Next fight: Who knows, who cares? But seriously it maybe against #10a Rogers or Unranked Fabricio Werdum in Strikeforce.

1. Brock “N Roll” Lesnar 4-1

Oh that Brock Lesnar is so hot right now! I know he’s only had 5 fights, but anyone who’s seen Brock fight, love him or hate him, will have to admit that he’s a beast and a force to be reckoned with. There’s not a lot of argument that needs to be made that he isn’t #1 until someone beats him. Can Fedor beat him? It’s a possibility, but until he steps into the octagon to do it and shut me Brock, and Dana up, Brock is the top dog in the heavyweights… even if he does have a phallic tattoo on his chest. Oh, and his nickname isn’t really “N Roll” but it should be!

Well there you have it folks, the most accurate breakdown in all of MMA of the heavyweights ;) If you disagree please write me an email at fantasyfootballmma@gmail.com or comment below. Thanks again for checking out the blog and I look forward to your thoughts.

-jg-